قالت وكالة “رويترز” للأنباء في تقرير لها ونقلا عن خبراء اقتصاديين إن مصر في حاجة إلى تدفقات قوية من الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر وزيادة الصادرات وعودة السياحة لتقوية عملتها، مؤكدة على أن ارتفاع قيمة الجنيه بشكل تدريجي ومستدام أمر ضروري.
وأضافت الوكالة أنه وبعد عام من تعويمه، ما زال الجنيه فاقداً نصف قيمته، على الرغم من قفزة في الاحتياطيات الأجنبية وتوقعات إيجابية من صندوق النقد الدولي، الذي وافق على إقراض مصر 12 مليار دولار بعد قرار التعويم بوقت قصير.
وألغى البنك المركزي ربط العملة عند 8.8 جنيه مقابل الدولار في الثالث من نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني العام الماضي؛ آملاً عودة العملة الأجنبية إلى النظام المصرفي الرسمي بعد شح نتج عن سوق سوداء متضخمة.
ويجري تداول الجنيه حالياً عند نحو 17.6 مقابل الدولار، ارتفاعاً من 20 جنيهاً تقريباً بعد التعويم مباشرة.
وقالت رضوى السويفي رئيسة البحوث لدى فاروس القابضة للأوراق المالية: “كان هناك طلب كبير متراكم على الدولارات لبعض الوقت، ومؤخراً فقط، أستطيع أن أقول قبل 3 إلى 5 أشهر، بدأت أرى توازناً بين العرض والطلب”.
وارتفعت الاحتياطيات الأجنبية إلى أكثر من 36 مليار دولار في يوليو/تموز، مسجلةً أعلى مستوياتها منذ انتفاضة 2011 التي أبعدت المستثمرين الأجانب والسياح، ونحو مثلي مستواها في أواخر 2016.
وأكد التقرير على أن الزيادة الكبيرة في شراء أدوات الدين المحلي؛ نظراً إلى ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة، بالإضافة إلى المنح والقروض، شكلت جزءاً كبيراً من القفزة التي شهدتها الاحتياطيات، على النقيض من الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر أو الصادرات أو السياحة.
وقال هاني فرحات، كبير الخبراء الاقتصاديين لدى “سي.آي كابيتال”، إن ارتفاعاً تدريجياً لقيمة الجنيه ضروري أيضاً لضمان استدامة عودة العملة الأجنبية إلى القنوات الرسمية.
وتابع قائلاً: “تلقى النظام المصرفي الرسمي ما يزيد على 30 مليار دولار منذ التعويم. وأيضاً، فإن الجنيه عند أقل من قيمته الحقيقية هو المحفز الطبيعي للاقتصاد في الفترة التي تلت التعويم”.
ووفقا للتقرير فقد ساهم انخفاض قيمة الجنيه بعد تعويمه في تعزيز الصادرات المصرية، وهو ما أدى إلى انخفاض العجز في الميزان التجاري لبلد يعتمد على الواردات، بنسبة 37 في المائة، وسط قيود أكثر صرامة على الاستيراد، لكن ضعف التصنيع يعني أن الصادرات غير الزراعية لا تزال منخفضة.
وقال خبراء اقتصاديون إن ارتفاعاً مفاجئاً وقصير الأمد في قيمة الجنيه قد يدفع الاستثمار الأجنبي للخروج من أدوات الدين المحلي.
وتوقعوا ارتفاع قيمة العملة المصرية في العام القادم مع عودة السياحة، التي بدأت تظهر علامات على التعافي، وزيادة الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر الذي تعمل الحكومة على تشجيعه من خلال قانون جديد يهدف إلى اجتذاب المستثمرين للعودة إلى مصر.
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[([0-9]{4})/([0-9]{1,2})/([0-9]{1,2})/([^/]+)/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&monthnum=$matches[2]&day=$matches[3]&name=$matches[4]&cpage=$matches[5]
[([0-9]{4})/([0-9]{1,2})/([0-9]{1,2})/([^/]+)(?:/([0-9]+))?/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&monthnum=$matches[2]&day=$matches[3]&name=$matches[4]&page=$matches[5]
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/trackback/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&tb=1
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/feed/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&cpage=$matches[2]
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/embed/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&embed=true
[([0-9]{4})/([0-9]{1,2})/([0-9]{1,2})/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&monthnum=$matches[2]&day=$matches[3]&cpage=$matches[4]
[([0-9]{4})/([0-9]{1,2})/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&monthnum=$matches[2]&cpage=$matches[3]
[([0-9]{4})/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&cpage=$matches[2]
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/trackback/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&tb=1
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/feed/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&cpage=$matches[2]
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/embed/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&embed=true
[(.?.+?)/embed/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&embed=true
[(.?.+?)/trackback/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&tb=1
[(.?.+?)/feed/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[(.?.+?)/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[(.?.+?)/page/?([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&paged=$matches[2]
[(.?.+?)/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&cpage=$matches[2]
[(.?.+?)(?:/([0-9]+))?/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&page=$matches[2]
)
