وطن – قال محللون في بنك الاستثمار “جيه بي مورغان”، إنه من المرجح أن تكون هناك حاجة لخفض حاد لقيمة الجنيه المصري، وأنه قد يحتاج إلى مزيد من المساعدة من صندوق النقد الدولي، إذا استمرت ضغوط السوق المالية في التصاعد.
وبحسب ما نقلته وكالة “رويترز” فإنه من المقرر أن يتسبب مزيج الارتفاع الجديد بأسعار السلع والأغذية، والانخفاض المحتمل في أعداد السياح الروس. في إلحاق المزيد من الضرر بالأوضاع المالية المصرية المتوترة بالفعل.
وقال بنك “جي بي مورغان” في تقريره: “نتوقع أن تكون هناك حاجة على الأرجح إلى خفض سعر الصرف”. مقدرا أن الجنيه المصري في الوقت الحالي أقل من قيمته الحقيقية بأكثر من 15٪.
وطرح البنك الأميركي عدة سيناريوهات، الأول يتمثل في عدم خفض قيمة العملة. وسيناريو مشابه للفترة 2014-2015 عندما سمحت السلطات للعملة بالانخفاض حوالي 5%، والثالث يتمثل في خفض أكبر في القيمة في إطار برنامج جديد مع صندوق النقد الدولي.
الحرب على أوكرانيا وقال “جيه.بي مورغان” “تحليل السيناريو هذا أدى إلى انخفاض احتمالي مرجح بنسبة 8.5٪ عن السعر الحالي مقابل الدولار”. مضيفا أن سعره المستهدف هو انخفاض الجنيه المصري إلى 17.25 للدولار.
وتم عرض سعر الجنيه المصري مؤخرًا عند 15.72 للدولار. وفقًا لبيانات “رفينيتيف” بعيدًا عن جيه بي مورجان المستهدف بنحو 10٪.
وكانت بيانات حديثة، قد أشارت إلى قيام عدد من المستثمرين ببيع سندات خزانة مصرية بنحو 1.19 مليار دولار في ثلاثة أيام فقط. مع استمرار النشاط في السوق الثانوية يوم الثلاثاء.
قد يهمك أيضا: وبسبب الحرب في أوكرانيا، تواجه مصر تكاليف أعلى بسبب احتياجها الشديد لاستيراد القمح. إضافة إلى فقدها عائدات من السياحة من الزائرين الروس والأوكرانيين لمنتجعات البحر الأحمر.
وعلى الرغم من ذلك، نفت الحكومة المصرية وجود أي تأثير للأزمة على الاحتياطي الاستراتيجي من القمح حتى الآن.
وقال مصرفيون إن المستثمرين يقلصون مراكزهم في مصر منذ الغزو الذي بدأ في 24 فبراير. مما يعكس مخاوف من عجز كبير في الحساب الجاري والميزانية في مصر.
موجة غلاء فاحش فضلا عن الانكشاف على مخاطر احتمال قيام مجلس الاحتياطي الاتحادي (البنك المركزي الأميركي) رفع أسعار الفائدة.
ويقولون إن المستثمرين يخشون تقلص قيمة حيازاتهم إذا اضطرت مصر لخفض قيمة عملتها.
من جانبها كشفت إدارة البورصة المصرية، أن المستثمرين غير المصريين باعوا يوم الثلاثاء. سندات خزانة بقيمة 5.79 مليار جنيه مصري (369.73 مليون دولار).
ويأتي ذلك بعد أن باعوا سندات بقيمة 7.79 مليار جنيه يوم الاثنين، و 5.10 مليار جنيه في تعاملات جلسة الأحد الماضي.
هذا وتضرب مصر حاليا موجة غلاء فاحش أصابت المصريين بصدمة كبيرة. جراء الأزمة التي يمر بها الاقتصاد العالمي بسبب الحرب في أوكرانيا وغزو روسيا لها.
واشتعلت مواقع التواصل الاجتماعي في مصر بتعليقات غاضبة. جراء ارتفاع سعر السلع الأساسية بشكل غير مسبوق “وكأن الحرب في مصر وليست في أوكرانيا” حسب وصفهم.
وبحسب وسائل إعلام مصرية فقد ارتفعت أسعار السلع في مصر ما بين 20 -50%. حيث زادت أسعار اللحوم نحو 50 جنيها منذ نهاية فبراير الماضي. بحسب شعبة القصابين بالغرفة التجارية بالقاهرة.
مخابز العيش السياحي هي الأخرى رفعت أسعار الخبز بنسبة 50%. فالرغيف الذي يباع بـ50 قرشًا أصبح سعره 75قرشًا، والكبير من جنيه لجنيه ونصف.
وزاد هذا الغلاء الفاحش من معاناة المصريين الذين يعانون في الأساس من تدهور وضعهم المعيشي، منذ صعود نظام عبدالفتاح السيسي الذي أغرق مصر في الديون بشكل غير مسبوق.
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[([0-9]{4})/([0-9]{1,2})/([0-9]{1,2})/([^/]+)/feed/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&monthnum=$matches[2]&day=$matches[3]&name=$matches[4]&feed=$matches[5]
[([0-9]{4})/([0-9]{1,2})/([0-9]{1,2})/([^/]+)/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&monthnum=$matches[2]&day=$matches[3]&name=$matches[4]&feed=$matches[5]
[([0-9]{4})/([0-9]{1,2})/([0-9]{1,2})/([^/]+)/page/?([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&monthnum=$matches[2]&day=$matches[3]&name=$matches[4]&paged=$matches[5]
[([0-9]{4})/([0-9]{1,2})/([0-9]{1,2})/([^/]+)/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&monthnum=$matches[2]&day=$matches[3]&name=$matches[4]&cpage=$matches[5]
[([0-9]{4})/([0-9]{1,2})/([0-9]{1,2})/([^/]+)(?:/([0-9]+))?/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&monthnum=$matches[2]&day=$matches[3]&name=$matches[4]&page=$matches[5]
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/trackback/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&tb=1
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/feed/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&cpage=$matches[2]
[[0-9]{4}/[0-9]{1,2}/[0-9]{1,2}/[^/]+/([^/]+)/embed/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&embed=true
[([0-9]{4})/([0-9]{1,2})/([0-9]{1,2})/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&monthnum=$matches[2]&day=$matches[3]&cpage=$matches[4]
[([0-9]{4})/([0-9]{1,2})/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&monthnum=$matches[2]&cpage=$matches[3]
[([0-9]{4})/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?year=$matches[1]&cpage=$matches[2]
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/trackback/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&tb=1
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/feed/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&cpage=$matches[2]
[.?.+?/attachment/([^/]+)/embed/?$] => index.php?attachment=$matches[1]&embed=true
[(.?.+?)/embed/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&embed=true
[(.?.+?)/trackback/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&tb=1
[(.?.+?)/feed/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[(.?.+?)/(feed|rdf|rss|rss2|atom|gn|flipboard)/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&feed=$matches[2]
[(.?.+?)/page/?([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&paged=$matches[2]
[(.?.+?)/comment-page-([0-9]{1,})/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&cpage=$matches[2]
[(.?.+?)(?:/([0-9]+))?/?$] => index.php?pagename=$matches[1]&page=$matches[2]
)
