Watan-The Reuters news agency quoted American and Arab officials as saying that Israel is now entering into a risk that involves the potential for a long and bloody confrontation if it defeats the Palestinian resistance movement Hamas and occupies the Gaza Strip without a credible plan for withdrawal and progress towards establishing a Palestinian state in the post-war period.
Two American officials, four officials from the region, and four informed diplomats told the agency that all the ideas proposed so far by Israel, the United States, and Arab countries to manage the post-war phase in Gaza have not gained widespread support. This raises concerns that the Israeli occupation army may be bogged down in a long-term security operation.
Hamas defeated Israel and destroyed normalization projects in the region
Some officials in Washington and Arab capitals believe that Israel is disregarding lessons learned from the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, where swift military victories were followed by years of violence and extremism.
Diplomats and officials argue that if the government controlled by the Hamas movement in Gaza is overthrown, and its infrastructure and economy are destroyed, what they describe as an “extremist conservative trend among the angered population” could lead to an uprising targeting Israeli forces in the narrow streets of the territory.
According to sources cited by Reuters, Israel, the United States, and several Arab countries agree on the need to topple Hamas after the October 7 attack, which dealt a significant blow and a major embarrassment to Israel. However, there is no consensus on an alternative to replace it, the report states.
While the U.S., Israel, and some Arab countries express a desire to dismantle Hamas, the report notes that former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak stated in October that it is impossible to eliminate the Hamas movement. Barak criticized the current Israeli Prime Minister, saying that if Benjamin Netanyahu were in a normal state, he would have resigned after the surprise attack on October 7.
President Joe ,,,,,,warned Netanyahu on Wednesday that the occupation of Gaza would be a “big mistake.” Diplomats say that the United States and its allies have not yet seen a clear roadmap from Israel regarding an exit strategy from Gaza, except for the declared goal of eliminating Hamas. U.S. officials are pressuring Israel to present realistic objectives and outline a plan for achieving them.
According to Reuters, Arab countries and their Western allies argue that the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank, is the natural candidate to play a larger role in Gaza, with a population of about 2.3 million people.
The situation in Gaza and the stance of the Palestinian Authority
The credibility of the Palestinian Authority, led by the Fatah movement under the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas (87 years old), has been significantly damaged. This is due to its loss of control over Gaza to Hamas in the 2007 conflict, its failure to halt the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and accusations of corruption and inefficiency.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated earlier this week that the current Palestinian Authority should not take responsibility for Gaza. He claimed that the Israeli military “is the only force capable of defeating Hamas and ensuring the prevention of terrorism,” according to his assertion. Israeli officials insisted after Netanyahu’s statements that Israel has no intention of occupying the Gaza Strip.
Some senior Palestinian officials, including Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh, have stated that the Palestinian Authority will not return to governing Gaza with Israeli tanks.
Diplomats have mentioned that Western partners and some Middle Eastern countries have proposed the formation of a transitional administration of technocrats in Gaza for two years, supported by the United Nations and Arab forces. However, diplomats have noted resistance from key Arab governments, such as the Egyptian government, fearing being drawn into what they perceive as the “quagmire of Gaza.”
Regional powers are concerned that any Arab forces deployed in Gaza might be forced to use force against Palestinians, and no Arab state wants to put its military in such a position.
Although Abbas is not widely popular among many Palestinians, there is no agreement on who will succeed him in the future.
It is likely that Dahlan would be acceptable to Egypt and Israel, but despite his close work with the United States during his tenure overseeing security in Gaza, a U.S. source mentioned Washington’s reservations about his return to power. There is a long-standing animosity between him and Abbas, the internal leadership of the Palestinian Authority, and also with Hamas supporters.
United Arab Emirates (UAE) regarding the administration of Gaza and its support for Mohammed Dahlan
According to a report by Reuters, Palestinian leader and former Fatah official, Mohammed Dahlan, who is currently in exile in Abu Dhabi, stated that Israel is mistaken if it believes that tightening its control over Gaza will end the conflict.
Dahlan, speaking from his office in Abu Dhabi, asserted that Israel is an occupying force, and the Palestinian people will deal with it as such. He added that Hamas leaders and its fighters will not surrender, but rather prefer self-sacrifice over submission, as he described it.
Diplomats and Arab officials have mentioned that the United Arab Emirates supports Dahlan taking control of Gaza after the war. However, Dahlan mentioned that no one, not even himself, desires to govern a shattered and destroyed region without a clear political path ahead.
Dahlan highlighted the absence of a vision for Gaza’s future from Israel, the United States, and the international community, urging Israel to cease the war and initiate serious talks about a two-state solution.
In 1996, Dahlan led a wave of arrests and suppression against senior Hamas leaders following a series of suicide operations against Israel.
Hamas is likely to win any elections
A UAE official stated that Abu Dhabi would support any post-war arrangements agreed upon by all parties to the conflict and endorsed by the United Nations to restore stability and achieve a two-state solution. According to a U.S. official cited by Reuters, selecting a leader for Gaza would be complicated due to regional players having their preferred figures and unique interests. Ultimately, the United States would support a leader who gains the approval of the Palestinian people, regional allies, and Israel.
Joost R. Hiltermann, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the International Crisis Group, emphasized the urgent need to rejuvenate Palestinian leadership, acknowledging the considerable difficulty in navigating this process again. He mentioned that Arab countries could use their veto power against any candidate they disapprove of, and Hamas, considering itself a leader in the struggle for Palestinian independence, is likely to win any elections.
There are significant risks of the conflict spreading to the occupied West Bank and beyond Israel. Officials and Arab diplomats have expressed unprecedented levels of concern about the potential expansion of military activities across the Middle East, not seen since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.
The aggression against Gaza is giving rise to a new generation of resistance fighters
More than 12 Gaza residents interviewed by Reuters have stated that the Israeli aggression on the besieged enclave is “creating a new generation of resistance fighters.”
Abu Mohammed (37), a government employee in the Jabalia refugee camp, expressed a preference for death over Israeli occupation. He told Reuters, refusing to disclose his full name, “I am not (a member of) Hamas, but in the days of war, we are all one people. If they eliminate the fighters, we will pick up rifles and fight… The Israelis may occupy Gaza, but they will never feel secure, not for one day.”
According to unnamed U.S. officials, discussions between the United States, the Palestinian Authority, and other Palestinian parties, as well as allies such as Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, regarding a post-war plan for Gaza, are still in the early stages.
A senior U.S. official stated, “Certainly, we have not reached the point of making any effort to promote this vision to our regional partners who will ultimately live with it and implement it.”
While President Biden emphasized the need for the war to end with a “vision” for a two-state solution, making Gaza and the West Bank a Palestinian state, he and his top aides have not provided details on how to achieve this, and they have not even proposed a resumption of talks.
Biden is avoiding dragging America into a direct military role in the conflict
In a speech delivered last week in Tokyo, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined Washington’s red lines in Gaza, stating that the administration opposes the forced displacement of Palestinians from the enclave, any reduction of its territory, Israeli occupation, or the imposition of a siege on it.
Regardless of Biden‘s diplomatic decisions, his aides state that there is no interest in dragging the United States into a direct military role in the conflict unless Iran or its regional proxies threaten U.S. security interests.
John Kirby, the spokesperson for the National Security Council at the White House, told reporters this month, “There are no plans or intentions to deploy U.S. military forces on the ground in Gaza, either now or in the future.”