Watan-Between a possible ceasefire agreement and a potentially final third stage in the brutal Israeli war against the Gaza Strip, scenarios and expectations have multiplied. Talks about military campaigns in the region have increased, and discussions about plans and preparations have intensified following significant losses incurred by the Israeli occupation in its war against the Palestinian resistance movement, Hamas.
As discussions about the end of the second stage of the war are underway, questions arise about the nature of the third stage. It remains uncertain whether it involves a ceasefire agreement and the fate of prisoners on both sides, as well as the possibility of success for any Qatari or Arab mediation.
However, the recent escalation initiated by the occupation along the borders with Egypt, coupled with efforts to pressure the Palestinian resistance through further war crimes against civilians, has introduced multiple potential scenarios.
Some media outlets claimed that the United States has given Israel until the end of 2023 to conclude the war, or else it will intervene forcefully to end it if the Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, insists on continuing.
There is also speculation about a potential ceasefire agreement that may be reached soon between the Israeli occupation and the Hamas movement in Gaza. Such an agreement could include the release of prisoners from both sides, under the sponsorship of Egypt and Qatar.
Expectations for the third stage of the Gaza war
According to the Israeli Broadcasting Authority’s claims, the Israeli plan for the third stage of the war on Gaza includes the following:
- Ending the ground operation in the Gaza Strip.
- Reducing the number of Israeli forces participating in the campaign.
- Discharging reserve forces.
- Increasing reliance on airstrikes.
- Establishing a buffer zone on the border between Israel and the Gaza Strip.
Israeli occupation statistics indicate significant losses in its military forces, which may prompt a withdrawal under the guise of a long-term ceasefire agreement.
As for Hamas, it is expected to “retain some of the Israeli prisoners as a bargaining chip for the future.” According to claims by the Israeli Broadcasting Authority, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is working to regain his leadership capacity and control over areas already occupied by Israel.
جيش الدفاع يعلن سقوط ثمانية من مقاتليه في معارك غزة وبهذا يكون عدد ضحايا جيش الدفاع من المقاتلين منذ اندلاع الحرب يوم السابع من أكتوبر ولغاية الآن 485 مقاتلا بالإضافة الى عدد لم يذكر من المصابينhttps://t.co/T2N6iIcTgj pic.twitter.com/DUdSlQc8TS
— مكان الأخبار (@News_Makan) December 24, 2023
The withdrawal of fighters from the Israeli “Golani” Brigade from the Gaza Strip is seen as a significant desire within the Israeli forces, aiming to catch their breath after suffering significant human and military losses.
As for Hamas, it is expected to “retain a portion of the Israeli prisoners as a bargaining chip for the future.” According to the claims of the Israeli Broadcasting Authority, its leader Yahya Sinwar is working to regain his leadership capacity and control over areas already occupied by Israel.
The withdrawal of fighters from the Israeli “Golani” Brigade from the Gaza Strip is seen as a significant desire within the Israeli forces, aiming to catch their breath after suffering significant human and military losses.
Escalation and Buffer Zone in Gaza
However, the Jordanian military expert Fayez Al-Duwayri saw in his analysis on Al Jazeera, where he is hosted almost regularly, that “Israel’s bombing of all areas in the Gaza Strip, and its demand for the residents of Khan Yunis to head to Rafah, indicate that it is proceeding with a plan of forced displacement.”
“But just as the occupation has laid out its plans and strategies for the next stage, so has the resistance, by repositioning and strengthening its positions, as well as possessing the element of surprise, the ability to move and take the initiative in war, bombardment, and the advantage of knowing the battlefield,” admitted the spokesperson for the occupation army, Daniel Haggari.
The military and strategic expert, Dr. Ali Al-Zahab, expects, according to his statement to the “Gulf Online” website, that the next strategy for the occupation will be “to create an area free of Palestinian presence, west of Ben Gurion Airport, and this means expanding the Gaza envelope inland.”
بدأت منذ صباح أمس الجمعة المرحلة الثانية من الحrب على غzة القرأة الأولية ستكون أوسع وأعنف وأشمل من المرحلة الأولى، لكن المتوقع من المgآوم ة ان تستطيع مواجهة الموقف المستجد بكفاءة واقتدار ومنع جيش الاحتلا. ل من تحقيق أهدافه ،
— Fayez Al-Dwairi I اللواء فايز الدويري (@FayezAldwairi) December 2, 2023
The goal of the step, according to Al-Zahab, is to “make the area safe and pass the economic corridor initiative, or part of it, even over the next 20 or 30 years.”
Al-Zahab expected the continuation of the occupation’s escalation in Gaza to create buffer zones, impose conditions for the release of prisoners, and target the areas where the resistance is concentrated.