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Unfolding Regional Dynamics: The Escalating Conflict from Gaza to Yemen

Watan NewsJanuary 22, 2024

Watan-In an analytical report on the conflict scene in the region, political analyst Hisham Malham stated that after more than a hundred days of war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and after the United States’ attempts to contain the conflict and avoid involvement, Washington found itself launching attacks against the Houthi rebels. This led to the reclassification of the “Ansar Allah” organization as a specifically designated global terrorist group.

This is Washington’s latest attempt to cut off funding for the group, armed and trained by Iran, and to punish it for its “terrorist activities,” including “unprecedented attacks against ships sailing in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, as well as against forces deployed in the region to defend the security and safety of commercial navigation,” said Malham, a non-resident researcher at the “Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.”

Regarding the Houthi rebels and the Red Sea conflict, a statement from the U.S. State Department mentioned that if the Houthis cease their attacks, the United States will reconsider this classification. Former President Donald Trump had classified the Houthis as an international terrorist group just days before the end of his term, but President Biden overturned this classification at the beginning of his term to avoid hindering humanitarian aid access to Yemen.

The disruption of international navigation in the Red Sea, one of the world’s major shipping lanes, raised concerns about the return of inflation to the markets and the interruption of supplies to vital factories in Europe.

Malham pointed out in his report that since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, specifically since the Israeli invasion of Gaza, President Biden has pursued a two-pronged policy: providing almost unconditional military and diplomatic support to Israel, including accepting its main goal of destroying Hamas and eradicating it from Gaza if possible. At the same time, there is an effort to contain the conflict and prevent it from spreading to the Lebanese-Israeli front.

In this context, Washington sent aircraft carriers with supporting ships to the eastern Mediterranean as a clear warning to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran not to get involved in the fighting. In the weeks following Israel’s occupation of Gaza, U.S. officials, as well as political and military leaders in Iran and Hezbollah, reiterated on multiple occasions that they do not seek to expand the scope of the conflict.

Avoiding Escalation of Combat

Despite the escalating military tension on the Lebanese-Israeli border, including artillery and missile attacks from both sides, and the displacement of tens of thousands of Lebanese and Israelis from border areas, Hezbollah and, to some extent, Israel, have shown restraint in qualitatively escalating the fighting or violating established rules and agreements to keep tension high on the border. At the same time, they aim to prevent an explosion and a shift to a comprehensive war, as happened during the destructive war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, which lasted for more than a month.

However, this relative “restraint” on the Lebanese-Israeli border does not eliminate the possibility of unplanned incidents undermining the “rules of the game” and leading to unintended qualitative escalation. This is particularly true since the ongoing tension between Israel and Hezbollah has resulted in increasing losses for both parties, according to Malham.

Biden and Netnyahu — U.S. involvement in the Middle East

The situation has led to Israeli threats, specifically from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Gallant, in several instances, including an interview with The Wall Street Journal, stated that Hezbollah, which monitors events in Gaza, “realizes that we can do in Beirut what we did in Gaza.” Gallant threatened that if an agreement is not reached to return 80,000 Israelis to their homes in northern Israel, from which they evacuated, “Israel will not hesitate to resort to military action.”

Despite more than a hundred days of fighting, during which Israel turned much of Gaza into barren land and killed over 23,000 Palestinians, Hamas remains capable of launching rockets against Israel, and its field leaders, beyond Israel’s grasp, continue to lead the fight against it. All of Israel’s attempts to eliminate the hostage threat have failed.

This military reality has led some military analysts to question the seriousness of Israel’s threats to open the northern front against Hezbollah. Hezbollah possesses significant combat experience (due to previous confrontations with Israel and its involvement in fighting in Syria), as well as military and technological capabilities that far surpass those of Hamas. Unless Israel hopes to exploit U.S. presence in the region and involve the United States in a fight against Hezbollah, and possibly Iran.

Hisham Malham continues in his report on the website of the “Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington” that some military analysts inside and outside Israel say that the fatigued Israeli occupation army, after a long battle against Hamas, is not in a military position to open a second front against a stronger enemy than Hamas.

However, the military developments in the region stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and up to the Gulf, during the hundred days that have passed since the war, have shown that there are new facts and challenges that may not be within the capability of a single country, even if its name is the United States, to contain the conflict for a long time. This could result in the outbreak of fighting on more than one front in this vast region, involving U.S. forces, despite Washington’s attempts to avoid such an outcome.

Possible Wider War in the Region

On the twelfth of this month, the United States, in collaboration with Britain and with support from other allies, carried out punitive airstrikes against Yemen. These airstrikes were executed by aircraft flying from bases in the region, in addition to missiles launched by U.S. submarines against dozens of Houthi military sites. These strikes were in response to missile attacks and drone operations conducted by Houthi forces since last November against commercial navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis claim that these actions are in support of Gaza against Israelihe aggression, and they state that these attacks will only cease if the blockade on Gaza is lifted.

These attacks, which included the seizure of ships during their navigation in the Red Sea, using fast boats to harass commercial vessels, or attempting to take control of them, placed U.S. forces in the Red Sea in a military confrontation with the Houthis. Following this, the U.S. issued warnings that if these attacks do not stop, Washington and its allies will directly intervene to halt them.

Washington Fighting on Behalf of Israel

This unfolded on January twelfth, making the United States a party to a broad regional conflict. Although U.S. officials claim that their military operations in the Red Sea and against Yemen are not designed to defend Israel (even though the Houthis are indeed violating international laws and obstructing peaceful maritime navigation), the prevailing impression in the region is that Washington is fighting on behalf of Israel.

The Houthis, who justified their attacks in the name of solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinian people, have transformed in recent months into one of the prominent regional forces under the umbrella of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” sponsored by Iran. This axis includes, in addition to the Houthis, armed forces allied with it in Iraq, Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, along with the Hamas movement.

In a sudden and qualitative escalation, contrary to its confidence in its military capabilities and regional status, Iran launched a missile and drone attack last Tuesday against an anti-Iranian jihadist group operating in the Baluchistan region of Pakistan called “Army of Justice.” This attack resulted in the deaths of two children, according to Pakistani authorities, who strongly condemned the assault. Thus, within 48 hours, Iran targeted sites in three neighboring countries, including Pakistan, which possesses dozens of nuclear bombs and knows in advance that it will not face any repercussions.

Iran’s Defense Minister, Mohammad Reza Aghatehrani, rushed to confirm the day after the attack against jihadists in Pakistan that Iran will not set any limits on the use of its missile capabilities against its enemies whenever necessary. He added, “We are a missile power in the world,” emphasizing that any threats to Iran will be faced with strength and decisiveness.

The main goal of the “Axis of Resistance” is to weaken American influence in the region, force the United States to withdraw its forces from countries surrounding Iran, such as Iraq, reduce military presence in the Gulf region as much as possible, and assist Iran in enhancing its regional influence and dominance.

Therefore, it was not surprising when the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed Al-Sudani, announced after these military developments, “We believe that the justifications for the presence of the international coalition have ended,” referring to the military coalition composed of 2,500 American soldiers and 900 soldiers from other allied countries.

Al-Sudani also expressed his general displeasure with the United States’ policy towards the war in Gaza, pointing out that the West turned its back on the Palestinians before Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7th last year. He called for more pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the “genocidal” war against the Palestinians.

The U.S.-British airstrikes came after Israeli escalation against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, including assassinations targeting Saleh Al-Arouri, a prominent leader of Hamas residing in the suburb, the main stronghold of Hezbollah in Beirut. Another targeted assassination was Wissam Al-Taweel, one of Hezbollah’s prominent field commanders in southern Lebanon, killed during the recent battles.

An Israeli airstrike last month also led to the killing of Sayyid Razi Musawi, a prominent Iranian military commander in the heart of the Syrian capital, Damascus.

The response was swift from the “Axis of Resistance” to Israeli escalation through Hezbollah’s missile attacks against an Israeli military base in the north. Militias allied with Iran in Iraq also launched protests against U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria. The Houthis escalated their attacks in the Red Sea, and Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman.

The recent military confrontations between the United States and its allies on one side and the Houthi forces on the other, along with the reclassification of the Houthis as an international terrorist group, are not expected to bring about a significant or rapid change in the behavior of the Houthis or the “Axis of Resistance” as a whole.

The conflict poses a threat to undermining the fragile ceasefire that suspended the war in Yemen. The ceasefire, awaiting consolidation through an implementable political understanding, may be jeopardized by the continuation of these confrontations. It is noteworthy that Bahrain was the only Gulf state that provided logistical support for the U.S.-British airstrikes, while other Gulf countries called for restraint.

This position in itself reflects a Gulf understanding that there is no military solution against the Houthis, especially if it relies solely on airstrikes, and that the collapse of the Yemen ceasefire will negatively affect the security of Arabian Gulf countries.

The United States has practically become a party to a regional conflict that started more than a hundred days ago between Israel and Hamas. Today, the conflict involves Israel, the United States, Iran, and the military forces cooperating with Tehran in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

If Washington wants to calm tensions in the region, even partially, it must start by exerting pressure to stop the Israeli war against Gaza and its inhabitants. The continuation of the destructive Israeli war against Gaza will mean an increased likelihood of the United States getting more deeply involved in another military conflict in the Middle East, after paying a high human and financial price for approximately twenty years in conflicts spanning from Afghanistan to Iraq and the Eastern Mediterranean.