Houthi Threat: Undersea Cable Targeting and Strategic Adjustments

Watan-An analysis by the Gulf International Forum has revealed a weapon in the possession of the Houthi group in Yemen, Ansar Allah, that could alter the equation amid their operations in the sea in support of Gaza.

The analysis suggests that, in the face of escalating confrontations with the U.S.-led naval coalition, the Houthis may target international undersea cables.

According to the analysis, this sophisticated target could disrupt global communications and economies in a way described as “dangerous.” Despite Western efforts to weaken the Houthi ability to threaten maritime traffic in the Red Sea, they continue to strike commercial ships off the coast of Yemen.

The Houthi group asserts that their attacks target Israeli ships or those affiliated with Israel until the aggression on Gaza ceases and sufficient food and medical aid is allowed to enter.

The analysis suggests that if the fighting persists, the group may adjust its strategy to target vital communication cable networks under the sea.

On December 24th last year, a Telegram channel linked to the Houthis posted a map illustrating cable networks in the Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and the Gulf. The accompanying message implied a threat, understanding that the maps depicted international cables connecting regions worldwide.

The strategic location of Yemen, where internet lines connecting entire continents pass nearby, not just countries, was highlighted. With the Gaza conflict escalating across the Middle East, undersea communication cables in the Red Sea faced increased scrutiny from the Houthis and their allies.

The analysis noted that both Hezbollah and Iran-backed groups in Iraq, as indicated on Telegram, issued statements suggesting they might consider cutting the cables—a new development in the regional conflict.

Many people, both in the Middle East and globally, consider modern conveniences provided by undersea cables as essential, according to the analysis. These cables serve as a crucial digital infrastructure, handling over 95% of international data and communication flows, including approximately $10 trillion in daily financial transactions.

Any damage to these cables could impede internet access over vast areas, causing significant economic disruptions to entire countries, the analysis stated.

Concerns for Gulf and U.S

The analysis expressed particular concern for Gulf Cooperation Council countries and the United States and its allies, emphasizing that cable destruction could sever military or governmental communications.

It clarified that cables are the only infrastructure capable of accommodating terabytes of military sensor data. The Bab el Mandeb Strait serves as a chokepoint for maritime traffic above the sea surface and is one of three cable chokepoints globally.

Any threat to this infrastructure is a source of special concern for major powers such as China and the United States, competing for control over the cable network, the analysis highlighted.

Challenges for the Houthis

Until now, the analysis noted, cables have remained secure due to the Houthi’s relative technological backwardness, not due to a lack of incentive. The group primarily engaged in a land war against the internationally recognized Yemeni government and its Saudi and Emirati allies, failing to develop a highly-trained naval force.

The analysis suggested that the Houthis lack the necessary submarines to access the cables. However, given time and opportunity, they might adapt some of their naval tactics to target vital communication infrastructure.

In conclusion, the analysis warned that the shallow waters of the Gulf, with a depth of only 100 meters, reduce the need for high-tech submarines to accomplish the task. The undersea cable network could be an easy and ideal target for their next attack, a possibility that should raise concerns for all nations relying on this vital infrastructure.