Watan-An analysis by the American magazine Foreign Policy, prepared by specialized researchers in Middle Eastern affairs, indicates that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces five scenarios of downfall, still regarded within the Palestinian territories occupied by settlers as primarily responsible for the biggest failure in the history of occupation.
The report, translated and compiled by researchers Aaron David Miller and Adam Isacson from the Carnegie International Peace Foundation, stated that Netanyahu is dealing with a converging network of conflicts and pressures, foremost among them the increasingly dissatisfied Israeli public.
The escalating anger against Netanyahu stems from “the frustration among the families of Palestinian resistance prisoners Hamas and defections in the War Council; along with the existence of a rebellious right-wing faction; and the return of reserve soldiers and increasing tensions with the United States.
All of this, in addition to the lawsuits filed against the Prime Minister of the occupation on charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust in the Central Court in Jerusalem.
Within the occupation, there is a conviction that Netanyahu’s dual objectives in the Gaza war, represented by the destruction of the Palestinian resistance movement Hamas and the release of prisoners still held in Gaza, are now in serious doubt.
Hamas has succeeded to a great extent in thwarting the operations of the Israeli army; and perhaps on the horizon looms a deal for the release of prisoners.
What Netanyahu Fears Most
However, it seems that Netanyahu has few tools of pressure at his disposal that he must withdraw, and perhaps what the Israeli Prime Minister fears most is not the Americans or pressure from the families of prisoners, but rather “losing the majority in the Knesset, which took four years and five elections.”
If a hostage deal emerges that requires a long ceasefire, extremist right-wing members of the Knesset, especially Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir or Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, may seek to withdraw from the government coalition.
If Netanyahu succumbs to pressure from his right, the imminent threat of resignation from Benny Gantz and Avigdor Lieberman from the war cabinet remains a clear possibility according to the American magazine Foreign Policy.
Withholding confidence from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requires at least 61 votes from members of the Knesset (out of 120) to pass.
Alternatively, the Knesset could pass a bill with a simple majority to dissolve itself and transition to elections.
However, it seems that there is no appetite in the current Knesset to send the country to another election during wartime.
Other Tools to Topple Netanyahu
According to Foreign Policy magazine, abandoning Netanyahu within the Likud party, with the resignation of Gantz and Ashkenazi from the war cabinet, in addition to widespread protests, would serve as an incentive for a handful of Likud Knesset members to abandon Netanyahu.
Investigations by a judicial inquiry committee into the events of October 7th, formed by the occupation government, or by the State Control Committee in the Knesset, could lead to significant internal changes for Netanyahu, potentially resulting in his trial, although he may attempt to evade this step by modifying the composition of the investigation committee to protect himself from any responsibility.
There are other methods related to Netanyahu’s own trial – which has lasted for four consecutive years without any signs of conclusion in the near future – that could lead to conviction or a guilty plea deal, including Netanyahu’s political retirement to prevent the consequences of conviction.
The fifth tool is linked to Washington, where the Biden administration has initiated a comprehensive regional initiative to overcome the war between Israel and Hamas and to pressure for a normalization agreement. This requires several solutions, such as “the release of prisoners in Gaza in exchange for prisoners that would lead to a temporary ceasefire with Hamas lasting for months.”
Among the solutions is the implementation of a “Saudi offer to normalize relations with Israel, conditioned on Israeli approval of the establishment of a Palestinian state and the withdrawal of forces from Gaza.”
If Netanyahu rejects the deal, it will be followed by elections leading to his defeat, and the new government will secure the deal.
It is worth noting that in 2001, Ariel Sharon, leader of Likud, inflicted one of the biggest defeats in Israeli politics on Ehud Barak after the failure of the Camp David summit and the outbreak of the second intifada.
Similarly, the Lebanon War in 2006 ousted then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, whose resignation marked the beginning of Netanyahu’s long tenure as prime minister.