Watan-Despite the doubts of many experts about Egypt’s willingness to suspend the peace treaty signed with Israel, such a move, if it were to happen, would herald several changes.
The American website “Responsible Statecraft” published an analysis by Georgieo Caviero, an assistant professor at George Town University, regarding what he considered radical changes that might occur if Egypt took this step.
Caviero stated that the invasion of Rafah and the displacement of Palestinians, under Israel’s claim of four Hamas battalions operating in the city, would ignite significant friction between Cairo and Tel Aviv.
Egyptian Outrage
He added that this situation would also exacerbate tensions significantly between the Egyptian people and the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
In the writer’s opinion, this displacement would rise to the level of the Second Catastrophe (Nakba), leading to unrest in Egypt if Egyptians perceive the government as complicit in allowing this ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in Gaza.
Alongside economic considerations, this is one of the main reasons behind Cairo’s announcement that Israel’s displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and forcing them into Egypt is a red line that should not be crossed.
However, Ahmed Abouda, a fellow at Chatham House, believes it is unlikely that Egypt would take the first step to tear up the peace treaty unilaterally.
He added that what Egypt is doing is adopting strategic rhetorical positions to convey three messages: defending Egypt’s security interests and the Palestinian cause to the Egyptian public, conveying Cairo’s anger to Washington at the Biden administration’s failure to stop Israeli actions threatening the displacement of Palestinians to Sinai, and finally sending a message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli military and intelligence generals.
3 Reasons That Rule Out the Scenario of Suspending the Peace Treaty
Meanwhile, Gordon Gray, former US Ambassador to Tunisia, ruled out Egypt’s suspension of the peace treaty because Egypt does not seek a military confrontation, even unintentionally, with Israel.
Moreover, Egypt does not want to risk losing US military aid (worth $1.3 billion annually) granted directly as a result of the peace treaty, in addition to Egypt sharing Israel’s views on the threat posed by Hamas.
However, according to the analysis, freezing the peace treaty remains a possibility, and it is difficult to predict how events would unfold if Egypt took this step, as there are many unknown variables.
Caviero speculated that any freeze by Egypt on the treaty would lead to an unprecedented level of instability in Egyptian-Israeli relations.
Washington’s reaction is likely to be extreme, given the importance of Egyptian-Israeli peace in American foreign policy agendas in the Middle East.
It is certain that the United States will move to retaliate against Egypt without holding Israel responsible for the crisis.
Washington may halt foreign aid to Egypt, and the European Union may begin investigating Egyptian school curricula or take other meaningless actions.