Watan-In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory in Michigan was narrower than expected, with just over 150,000 votes separating him from incumbent President Donald Trump, contrary to poll predictions.
Biden received crucial support from two partially overlapping groups of voters in Michigan and other swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin: American Muslims and American Arabs.
Now, as Biden and Trump prepare for a November rematch, the Democratic Party leader faces a growing possibility of backlash from these voters, many of whom are inclined to undermine his reelection efforts.
Increasing discontent over Washington’s backing of Israel amid its unprecedented airstrikes on Gaza has led many American Arab and Muslim voters to express their intention to distance themselves from voting. The ongoing US military funding for Tel Aviv has contributed to the rising death toll among Palestinians in the Gaza conflict, with nearly 30,000 casualties recorded since October 7th, including many children.
In Michigan, where early primaries are starting this week, Biden supporters had previously pledged to send a strong message to his administration by disrupting the elections, even as the president’s aides rush to engage with community leaders and mend fractured relationships.
This highlights the desires of American Arab and Muslim communities and underscores the pivotal role these voting blocs play for Biden, particularly in regions of the United States where they hold significant sway.
What are the demands of American Arabs?
The Arab and Muslim communities have urged the Biden administration to take decisive action and cease the violence in Gaza, especially considering that some members of these communities have personal connections to the area.
Their demands include an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of Palestinian political prisoners and Israeli detainees, cessation of military funding to Israel by Washington, adequate aid provision to Palestinians, and the resumption of humanitarian funding to UNRWA. Additionally, they call for increased efforts by the US government to combat rising hatred against Arabs and Palestinians.
What is the “uncommitted” option some voters are considering?
Some voters are considering the “uncommitted” option as a form of protest or expression of dissatisfaction with the political status quo. This option involves abstaining from endorsing any specific candidate and instead selecting “uncommitted” on the ballot during the Democratic primary elections, particularly in Michigan. By choosing this option, voters indicate their support for the party while conveying that they are not fully committed to any of the candidates listed.
The uncommitted votes will not count towards Biden’s tally, nor will they affect Trump, who is not part of the Democratic primary. Although this choice won’t be available in the general elections, the accumulation of uncast votes and improperly marked ballots could potentially decrease Biden’s overall vote count. Initiatives like the #AbandonBiden campaign in Minnesota and efforts led by groups such as “Listen to Michigan” aim to attract thousands of voters to choose the uncommitted option, sending a message to Biden and other political leaders.
This strategy reflects a broader dissatisfaction with the political landscape, particularly regarding issues such as the Gaza conflict. Elected leaders, including Rashida Tlaib and Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, have publicly expressed their intention to vote uncommitted in order to signal their discontent and urge Biden to reconsider his approach.
What are the states considered strongholds for Arab American voting?
There are approximately 3.5 million Arab Americans according to the Arab American Institute, constituting about 1 percent of the U.S. population. Around 65% of them are Christians, about 30% are Muslims, and a small number practice Judaism.
While these groups tend to vote based on various interests, “there is almost unanimous consensus on the need for a ceasefire in Gaza,” as stated by Youssef Chouhoud, a researcher in race and religion at Christopher Newport University in Virginia.
Dearborn, Michigan, is home to the largest Arab American community in the United States – over 40 percent of the city’s population. Georgia, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia are also home to large Arab communities.
At least three of those states – Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – will be battleground states in November, where the difference in Democratic and Republican support is marginal, and small shifts could swing the results.
Arab American votes made a difference in the closely contested 2020 race. Biden led Trump by a margin of 154,000 votes in Michigan – most attributed to the Arab American community, which accounted for 5% of the votes. Michigan is home to an estimated 240,000 Arab Americans.
In Georgia, Biden won by fewer than 12,000 votes. The state is home to over 57,000 Arab Americans.
However, the growing discontent in those communities means, for the first time in 26 years, the Democratic Party is no longer an option for many Arab American voters, whether they are Christians or Muslims. Biden’s approval ratings among Arab Americans dropped from 59% in 2020 to 17% in 2023.
What are the effects of abstaining from voting?
Some analysts contend that whether Muslim and Arab Americans abstain from voting or opt for Trump, their impact on Biden’s campaign is likely minimal due to their relatively small representation, comprising only 2 to 3 percent of total voters.
However, according to Chouhoud from CNU, abstention or spoiled ballots, such as those with write-in candidates, could potentially jeopardize Biden’s narrow margins in swing states, possibly facilitating another Trump presidency.
Chouhoud elaborated that it’s plausible for Biden to lose over 50% of the votes he received in 2020 from Arab and Muslim Americans collectively, equivalent to the victory margin he secured from these groups alone. Hence, he cannot solely rely on their support.
He further emphasized that such a scenario might elevate Trump’s chances of winning. Trump has hinted at reinstating the controversial travel ban targeting several Muslim-majority countries.
Chouhoud clarified that this observation is not an indictment of Muslims, as they have been transparent about their intentions for months. He suggested that if the Democratic establishment genuinely aimed to prevent a second Trump presidency, they would have pursued different strategies. Therefore, the issue is not solely about Arabs and Muslims.
Furthermore, other demographic groups might also negatively impact Biden’s electoral prospects. Pew Research Center polls indicate that 40% of Americans across party lines disapprove of Biden’s handling of the conflict, particularly among younger demographics.