Gaza Ceasefire and the Path to Saudi-Israeli Normalization

Watan-Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman appears to be the biggest winner from the announcement of a ceasefire in Gaza, but not for humanitarian reasons or solidarity with the residents of the besieged territory. The recent step, announced in Doha, has positioned the Kingdom to achieve conditions it has long awaited to finalize a historic normalization deal with Israel.

The Saudi-Israeli rapprochement has remained under wraps for years, but the situation in Gaza posed a significant obstacle to the open development of these relations. The announcement of an end to the war and a return to normalcy could be the spark that Mohammed bin Salman has long awaited to transition from covert dealings to overt normalization with Israel.

The new agreement, coinciding with the anticipated return of Donald Trump to the American political scene, opens the door wide for a likely normalization scenario between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. Trump, considered the primary architect of the Abraham Accords, played a decisive role in bridging views between Saudi Arabia and Israel. His expected comeback seems to be an additional incentive for Mohammed bin Salman to achieve this political ambition.

It is no coincidence that the Doha announcement came at a very sensitive time for the Kingdom, as the Crown Prince seeks to bolster his country’s influence on the regional stage, benefiting from the relative decline of Iran and its waning influence in the region. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia is expected to play a pivotal role in the reconstruction of Gaza, potentially earning it more political and economic leverage in the Middle East.

Meeting these conditions may help dispel the embarrassment that has long surrounded the Kingdom’s stance on the Palestinian cause, especially after Mohammed bin Salman previously stated that the issue was no longer a priority for him. With Netanyahu’s government accepting the agreement, the path now seems paved for Saudi-Israeli normalization under American sponsorship, with conditions far less complicated than before.

As this scenario inches closer to reality, questions remain: Will the region witness a new chapter in relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv? And what will be the impact of this step on the future of the Palestinian cause and the stance of Arab populations toward normalization?