Russian Delegation in Damascus: Is Assad’s Extradition and Fund Repatriation on the Agenda?

Watan-A high-ranking delegation from the Russian Foreign Ministry, led by the Russian President’s Special Envoy to the Middle East and Africa and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, has arrived in the Syrian capital, Damascus.

Bogdanov stated that the visit comes within the framework of strengthening the historical relations between the Russian Federation and Syria based on mutual interests. He emphasized that Russia is keen on Syria’s unity, independence, territorial integrity, and achieving national reconciliation and social peace in the country.

This visit marks the first official talks between Russia and the new Syrian administration, following previous interactions that were limited to military and closed diplomatic channels or conducted through intermediaries.

Preserving Interests

Syrian writer and researcher Omar Koush described the visit as exploratory and suggested that it may have been facilitated through Turkish mediation.

He noted that Russia wants to pragmatically deal with the new reality to preserve some of its interests, particularly its naval base in Tartus and the Hmeimim airbase, as well as the presence of Russian citizens and the Russian embassy in Damascus.

However, according to Koush, the talks will not unfold as Moscow desires. The new Syrian administration, previously based in Idlib under Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other factions, had been subjected to extensive Russian airstrikes and aggression for years. Russia consistently labeled these groups as “terrorist organizations” that needed to be eradicated, waged intense battles against them, and committed numerous massacres. This history will not be easily erased.

Led by Bogdanov… Moscow Seeks to Retain Military Bases

From Koush’s perspective, Russia’s primary offering will revolve around economic cooperation and attempts to secure investment opportunities in reconstruction. However, he believes that Syria’s trajectory is no longer aligned with the eastern orientation of the previous regime and has instead shifted entirely towards the West.

As a result, it will be difficult for the Russian delegation to secure what it wants. The best it can achieve is negotiating Russia’s withdrawal, particularly from Hmeimim and the Tartus naval base, while attempting to save face.

Regarding whether the Russian delegation will discuss issues such as handing over deposed President Bashar al-Assad and whether Moscow is prepared to deliver him to the new administration for accountability, including the billions he took with him, Koush remarked, “These are thorny issues, and I don’t believe Moscow is willing to do that.” Therefore, from his perspective, this visit will not be successful, and Russia will not maintain the same foothold it once had—a strategic presence on the Mediterranean and a launchpad in the Middle East. This, he argues, is a significant loss for Russia, one it must acknowledge.

A Strategic Defeat for Russia

From Moscow, researcher and academic Mahmoud Hamza told that the visit aims to consult and negotiate with the new Syrian government to preserve the historical ties between the two countries.

He asserted that Russia has suffered a major strategic and geopolitical defeat in Syria, and after nearly two months, it realized the necessity of sending a high-level delegation to Damascus to negotiate, open a new chapter with the new government, and safeguard the gains it secured in Syria.

He insisted that this will not come without a price and that the new Syrian government will not agree to Russia’s demands without concessions. According to Hamza, the first condition will be the handover of Bashar al-Assad, all criminals currently in Russia, and the wealth—including tons of gold—stolen by Assad. These issues will be central to the negotiations.

Based on this, Hamza sees potential for normalizing relations, but only if Moscow engages positively with the new government.

He explained that Russia wants to maintain its military bases, economic agreements, and military cooperation since it recognizes that its presence in the Middle East is crucial. Russian officials, including the Foreign Minister and the head of intelligence, have previously stated that Moscow will not leave the Middle East, highlighting its strategic interests in the region.

A Belated Step

Syrian-Russian political researcher Basil Haj Jassim described the visit as delayed, arguing that Russia should have taken this step earlier to prevent its relationship with Damascus from deteriorating. He pointed out that the Syrian customs administration and the Tartus port authority canceled a Russian investment contract, a situation that could have been avoided had early discussions taken place. Earlier talks could have fostered broader cooperation in trade, economy, military affairs, and diplomacy.

A Positive Step

After supporting Assad’s regime for 14 years, Russia has now taken its first positive step, according to Hamza. If Moscow hands over Assad and the criminals in Russia, relations could improve.

However, Hamza highlighted a major obstacle to normalizing ties between Moscow and Damascus: the European Union is exerting heavy pressure on Syria to end the Russian presence in the country. Damascus is now in urgent need of support from Europe and the United States for reconstruction efforts and political and economic backing. Meanwhile, Russia cannot be relied upon for economic or financial support due to its involvement in the Ukraine war and the sanctions imposed on it, which have burdened its economy.

Moscow had hoped to rebuild Syria with Assad in power, expecting that Russian companies would lead reconstruction efforts using Gulf and European funds rather than Russian money. However, events have taken a different turn.

Hamza concluded that despite the positives of this visit, it will be challenging and is unlikely to yield significant results. Instead, he sees it as a goodwill gesture aimed at creating a better atmosphere for negotiations between the two sides.

He ruled out the possibility of immediate agreements on critical issues, as Syria’s new leadership will demand concessions that Russia may find difficult to meet.

On the other hand, Basil Haj Jassim believes the visit serves as a key indicator of how relations between Damascus and Moscow will evolve in light of regional and international shifts.

Haj Jassim noted that as long as U.S. military bases remain in Syria, Russia’s continued presence will be necessary for balance—at least until Washington’s new Middle East strategy becomes clear, particularly with the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency.