Watan-A newly declassified CIA report from 1985 highlights the escalating tensions between Morocco and Algeria over the Western Sahara dispute. Both nations are vying for regional influence, forging new alliances, and expressing frustration over U.S. military aid. This conflict may push Washington toward a biased stance, potentially impacting its strategic interests and driving Morocco and Algeria to strengthen ties with Libya and the Soviet Union.
Escalating Morocco-Algeria Tensions
The ongoing Morocco-Algeria dispute continues to worsen, with the risk of further escalation putting Washington in a difficult position. The competition for regional influence, exacerbated by the stalemate over Western Sahara, has led both nations to seek new alliances—Morocco strengthening ties with Libya and Algeria moving closer to Tunisia.
At the same time, both Rabat and Algiers are disappointed with the level of U.S. military support, although neither wishes to jeopardize its relationship with Washington. However, continued tensions may push them to reassess their U.S. ties, potentially forcing the U.S. to take a clear stance in the conflict.
Morocco and Algeria’s Strategies to Pressure Washington
Both nations believe they can leverage their relationship with the U.S. in different ways:
- Morocco aims to use military access agreements that grant Washington strategic advantages.
- Algeria presents itself as a mediator between the U.S. and extremist groups in the Middle East.
However, growing frustration may lead both countries to threaten Washington with closer relations with Libya and the Soviet Union.
The Western Sahara Dispute
The Western Sahara conflict has been a point of contention since King Hassan II declared the region part of Morocco. Over the past decade, the dispute has remained deadlocked:
- Morocco has solidified its military control over most of Western Sahara, completing its fifth defensive barrier this year.
- Algeria has achieved diplomatic victories for the Polisario Front, with India and Liberia recognizing the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, and the U.N. showing broad support for Algeria’s proposal for a referendum—isolating Morocco internationally.
To break the deadlock, Morocco entered into a union with Libya, prompting Algeria to strengthen its alliance with Tunisia, further increasing tensions in North Africa.
Relations with the United States
The Morocco-Algeria conflict has complicated both countries’ relationships with the U.S. While Morocco, in particular, is frustrated by American military aid levels, both nations have sought U.S. support:
- Algeria has attempted to procure C-130 aircraft and maintain its military equipment while also seeking F-16 fighter jets.
- Morocco, heavily dependent on U.S. military assistance, expects preferential treatment in arms sales and economic aid, given its agreements that allow U.S. forces access to Moroccan military facilities.
King Hassan II wants to maintain close ties with Washington but miscalculated the U.S. response to his alliance with Muammar Gaddafi. He had hoped Washington would see this partnership as a way to separate Libya from Algeria, but instead, it became a political embarrassment.
Meanwhile, Algerian President Chadli Bendjedid expected stronger U.S. military and economic cooperation following his 1985 visit to Washington. However, he grew frustrated with America’s slow response, particularly regarding Algeria’s requests to modernize its military infrastructure and acquire advanced fighter jets.
Possible Moroccan and Algerian Strategies Toward Washington
Neither country wants to force the U.S. into making a definitive choice, but economic and military pressures may push them toward more aggressive tactics:
- Algeria may encourage the Polisario Front to carry out attacks inside Moroccan cities or increase assaults on Morocco’s defensive barriers.
- Morocco could respond by strengthening its defenses or even launching incursions into Mauritania or Algeria to target Polisario fighters.
If this escalation occurs, Washington may find it impossible to maintain neutrality in the conflict.
Impact on U.S. Foreign Policy
If King Hassan II decides to express his dissatisfaction with Washington, he has several options:
- Canceling joint U.S.-Moroccan military and economic committees.
- Reducing cooperation with the U.S. on regional matters, including Middle Eastern affairs.
- Imposing restrictions on U.S. military use of Moroccan bases.
Algeria, while having fewer options, could still:
- Withdraw from its role as a mediator between the U.S. and Arab states.
- Deepen its cooperation with the Soviet Union, potentially granting them access to its ports and air bases.
- Limit American business access to Algerian markets.
Potential Scenarios
Should tensions persist, Morocco is likely to suffer more due to its heavy reliance on U.S. military and economic support. Meanwhile, Algeria has more room to maneuver, benefiting from its economic resources and strong ties with the Soviet bloc. However, Algeria also seeks to improve its relations with the West and reform its economy, meaning it still requires U.S. support in this process.
Conclusion
The declassified CIA report underscores how the escalating Morocco-Algeria tensions could place the United States in a difficult position. Both nations are leveraging their relationships with Washington to further their strategic goals. With no resolution to the Western Sahara dispute in sight, the U.S. may eventually be forced to take sides, a decision that could significantly impact the balance of power in North Africa.
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