Israelis Warn of the “New Gamble”: The Real Motives Behind the “Shock and Awe” Attack on Gaza

Watan-The Israeli occupation government has renewed its aggression against Gaza with indiscriminate airstrikes that have been ongoing since dawn, backed by explicit U.S. support. There are indications that Israel may resort to additional measures, while some Israeli figures question the effectiveness, motives, and calculations behind the attack.

According to reports from Gaza, the airstrikes have resulted in hundreds of Palestinian casualties, most of them civilians. The latest wave of Palestinian bloodshed in the besieged territory is seen as a consequence of Netanyahu’s miscalculations, which could also lead to the deaths of the hostages. The Hostages’ Families Forum expressed their fears in a statement this morning, saying, “Our worst fears have come true— the government has abandoned the hostages.” The forum called on former U.S. President Trump to continue efforts to secure their release.

In their strongly worded statement condemning the decision to wage war, the families declared:”There will be no security, no victory, and no recovery until the last hostage is returned. We ask the government: Why did you withdraw from the agreement that could have brought all the hostages home?”

Israeli Military and Political Figures Oppose War Resumption

Military pilot and retired General Nimrod Sheffer, representing the forum’s position and echoing Israeli opposition voices, told Israel’s public radio that resuming the war is a grave mistake that could lead to the hostages being killed.

Sheffer acknowledged Israel’s responsibility for the collapse of diplomatic efforts, saying:
“We are the ones who violated the agreement with Hamas and the ceasefire. Do we really expect Hamas to accept this and wait for us to come and kill them? The real world does not work that way.”

Netanyahu’s government ended the agreement by refusing to implement the first phase of the deal, including withdrawing from the Salah al-Din (Philadelphi) corridor and allowing the entry of mobile homes and humanitarian aid as per the agreed-upon protocol. They also rejected further negotiations for the second phase.

Retired General Amos Gilad, former head of the security-political division at the Defense Ministry, stated on the same radio broadcast that resuming the war would not achieve the primary goal of retrieving the hostages. He emphasized that the time has come to secure their release and stop the war, as nothing is more important.

Similarly, former National Security Advisor General Giora Eiland warned that the renewed aggression is a reckless gamble that could spiral into greater danger for both the hostages and the Israeli army, especially in the event of a ground invasion.

Speaking on the same radio program, Eiland said he does not believe that intensified bombings will push Hamas to release the hostages. On the contrary, he cautioned:”The more the bombings intensify, the fewer hostages will be left alive to retrieve.”

Netanyahu’s Strategy: War for Political Survival?

Statements from Netanyahu’s office and the Israeli military suggest that this is only the beginning of the assault, which will continue unless Hamas releases the hostages. There are also hints at the possible use of other measures, including a ground invasion.

According to Maariv, newly appointed Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has proposed a plan to occupy and “cleanse” a specific area and maintain a military presence there. This explains why the Israeli army spokesperson urged Gazans to move westward. Netanyahu is set to hold a security meeting at the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv at 11 a.m. today, likely to discuss these developments.

This new offensive has received an American green light. A few days ago, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan issued threats against Hamas, and White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed on Fox News last night that Israel had informed the Biden administration in advance about the attack. The Israeli government has described this assault as a “surprise offensive,” reminiscent of the previous “gates of hell” operation.

In a bid to mislead and pressure Hamas into submission through extreme force, Israel had publicly instructed its negotiation team to continue talks in Cairo, even as it prepared to launch the assault. Meanwhile, leaks in Israeli media suggested that Hamas was planning attacks on settlements, which served as a pretext to resume hostilities, silence growing anti-war protests in Israel, and prioritize hostage release efforts.

War Timing and Political Calculations

This escalation coincides with internal Israeli turmoil, not just the collapse of the ceasefire agreement and mediation efforts. Notably, it comes just two days after the dismissal of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, officially due to a lack of confidence in him from Netanyahu. However, many believe the real reasons include ongoing investigations into Netanyahu’s advisors over their alleged ties with Qatar, as well as efforts to shift responsibility for the failures of October 7 onto the political leadership. Netanyahu is also accused of seeking greater control over the Shin Bet, turning it into a political secret police force, and retaliating against Bar for recently issuing an indictment-like report against him and other top officials. Yedioth Ahronoth has published the full contents of this report today.

Many analysts believe Netanyahu timed the renewal of the war to suppress opposition within the security establishment following Bar’s dismissal and to weaken public protests that were starting to gain momentum. His calculation is that Israelis will be hesitant to demonstrate in the middle of a war, especially with the sounds of artillery in the background.

This offensive also coincides with the anticipated return of far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir to the government. Hebrew media reported this morning that advanced negotiations are underway for his reinstatement. His party, Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power), released a statement saying:
“We welcome Israel’s return to intense fighting under Prime Minister Netanyahu’s leadership. As we have said in recent months, when we left the government, Israel must return to war in Gaza.”

This link between the war’s renewal and Ben Gvir’s potential return was even highlighted in a Yedioth Ahronoth cartoon, which depicted Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich standing together, laughing, while Netanyahu kicks out Bar. The caption reads, “Now it’s all set up.”

Who Pays the Price for War?

Officially, the Israeli government claims the airstrikes are aimed at securing the element of surprise and deception to retrieve the hostages. However, they also serve Netanyahu’s political interests: avoiding an official inquiry into the war’s failures, suppressing expected protests over Bar’s dismissal, and satisfying his far-right coalition partners to stay in power and secure his political legacy. Netanyahu, obsessed with his image as the “master of security,” refuses to acknowledge the failure of the war so far.

The decision to bring forward the cabinet meeting from Wednesday to Tuesday further underscores the urgency of preventing a broad protest after Bar’s dismissal. Ironically, Bar himself attended the meeting where the military operation was approved.

This escalation benefits Netanyahu by spilling Palestinian blood while disregarding agreements with mediators and international norms. It also grants him another opportunity to delay his corruption trial and deflect attention from internal investigations targeting his inner circle.

But can this new phase of war achieve what the previous one failed to do? Especially with Trump—unlike Biden—fully backing the blockade of food and water into Gaza? And with a new Israeli military chief eager to prove himself through extreme aggression?

Even Israeli analysts express doubts, as Netanyahu refuses to outline any post-war strategy for replacing Hamas or engaging with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. They warn that the brutal bombardment could endanger the hostages and that a ground invasion could result in heavy Israeli military casualties.

They also ask: Will Arab and Muslim nations continue to remain silent over Israel’s blatant disregard for agreements? And will the world and international institutions remain passive in the face of ongoing massacres against Gazans?