Watan-Are protests escalating in the Israeli street due to internal disagreements, after months of limited and hesitant demonstrations despite the resumption of the war on Gaza and the threat to the fate of the remaining hostages? Is the new aggression part of the pressure on Hamas, or a prelude to launching a second war on Gaza in pursuit of the elusive “absolute victory,” despite the massacres, savage destruction, and possibly ambitions for displacement?
These protests have recently shown a renewed awakening, due to a combination of new triggers and the ongoing motivator for months: widespread Israeli fear for the fate of the hostages in Gaza. The main new concerns include rampant corruption, growing authoritarianism, and the rising number of observers warning that this is a senseless war, without a plan, that will result in the deaths of both Palestinian civilians and Israeli captives, without bringing them back alive—potentially dragging Israel into another long and costly war.
Many ministers have shown open disdain for the government’s legal advisor, to the point of mockery. Minister Shlomo Karhi, for example, compared her to “a flight attendant trying to take control of the plane’s steering wheel from the pilot.”
“Protests Stir as Public Fatigue Clashes with Political Defiance”
However, this awakening might falter, as it is subject to fluctuating influences and public moods, especially given Israelis are exhausted by the war, and before that, by the daily protests in 2023 against the “judicial overhaul.” Moreover, some segments of society are not angered by the firing of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, whom they see as one of the senior officials responsible for the failure and disgrace of October 7.
Yet, the many statements by ministers declaring their refusal to abide by the law and the Supreme Court’s rulings pour fuel on the fire, worry Israelis, and push them out of their apathy and into the streets, despite exhaustion, potential despair about change, and even the cold weather.
This is what political analyst Raviv Drucker pointed out today in an article titled “Thank You, Karhi” published in Haaretz. He says that Minister of Communications Shlomo Karhi and other reckless ministers confirm in various ways their disrespect for the Supreme Court’s decision.
This refers to a future Supreme Court ruling regarding appeals filed (and to be filed) to prevent the dismissal of the Shin Bet chief and the government’s legal advisor—who was dismissed unanimously yesterday—amid widespread mockery from many ministers, including Karhi’s comparison to a flight attendant.
The Mood of the Street
Since news emerged of the government’s intent to fire Ronen Bar, demonstrations have grown in size and intensity against the occupation government. It is not unlikely that they will escalate further, especially after significant parties and organizations announced plans to join the protests—such as the Histadrut (General Federation of Labor), major companies, universities, and large law firms.
But for these protests to reach a peak that can restrain Netanyahu, more organization, participation, and missteps from his government are needed—along with long-term stamina. Internal issues are unfolding along a path with no immediate resolution and require patience and determination.
If the protests grow in scale, could they impact the continuation of the assault on Gaza or the fate of the stalled deal? Perhaps the mounting protest against corruption and authoritarianism could fuel opposition to the war, especially as it risks killing the remaining hostages in Gaza. These scandals raise serious questions among some Israelis about Netanyahu’s priorities, decision-making, and whether his actions are driven by ulterior motives.
Anger over corruption and tyranny may thus feed into the protests against renewed bombing or a second war on Gaza, as the issues are deeply intertwined. One cannot separate protesting corruption from protesting a return to a war many Israelis believe is baseless and unplanned.
Protest leaders aim to win a battle for awareness—the awareness of the Israeli public and the American administration, which is closely watching and aware that Netanyahu is acting contrary to the will of his citizens, as Steve Witkoff remarked the day before yesterday.
The Key Is in the White House
However, the large-scale protests Netanyahu fears most—according to past experience—are far from guaranteed due to public fatigue, divisions within the opposition, their mistakes, and the lack of charismatic leadership. Moreover, Netanyahu persistently and cunningly seeks to cool down and pacify the protests, even by encouraging American officials to claim that “Hamas” is the one obstructing the deal, for instance.
The future of the protests depends on a public mood that can shift due to many internal and external factors—old and new. But on their own, they may not be enough to restrain the government, stop the war, and return to an agreement. The key to the Gaza crisis lies, to a great extent, in the White House, which is currently giving Israel the green light to pressure Hamas with firepower.
Yet Netanyahu seems to be planning beyond just pressuring Hamas, as he carries out the current indiscriminate bombing that targets hospitals and civilians. Some Israeli observers—like military analyst Amos Harel of Haaretz—believe this is laying the groundwork for launching a second war.
The Red Line
In an article titled “The Red Line,” Harel reveals that as military operations expand and the concept of “transfer” becomes a practical plan, Egypt fears Israel might open a border crossing to push Gazans into Sinai and impose a new reality. He notes Egypt would then face two choices: absorb hundreds of thousands of refugees under pressure or deploy military force to prevent their entry.
He continues: “Either way, this would have catastrophic consequences for Egypt-Israel relations. To prevent this, Trump must be clearer and stricter in saying that migration of any kind—not just forced—is not a viable plan or solution.”
On Netanyahu’s intentions—whether it’s pressure on Hamas or a second war—Dr. Michael Milshtein, head of Palestinian affairs at Tel Aviv University, agrees with Harel. In a piece published by Yedioth Ahronoth today titled “The Second War of Delusion”, Milshtein argues that while Israelis are preoccupied with the firing of Bar and Baharav-Miara, it’s difficult to ask essential questions about the war’s logic: Is the goal freeing the captives or occupying Gaza at the cost of sacrificing them?
He answers that when the prospects for normalization with Saudi Arabia fade, it’s important to weigh the cost of occupying Gaza. He adds: “In the long run, Israel will need to control the Strip until a local alternative to Hamas arises—but not now, when the main goal is freeing the hostages.”
An Agreement Within Two Months?
Contrary to assessments and warnings about Netanyahu’s intentions to occupy the Strip, establish military rule, and possibly force Gazans into Sinai, retired General Eliezer Marom (former Navy Commander) expects the U.S. administration to impose a settlement within two months.
In an interview with Army Radio today, Marom said settlement expansion in the West Bank is intensifying quietly, under the radar and the cover of internal disputes. Therefore, Smotrich and Ben Gvir will accept a new agreement that ends the war and will not leave the coalition.
When asked, Marom said that Hamas agrees not to remain in power in Gaza, and that disarmament will be negotiated—along with other topics.
He continued: “Maybe Trump will come and say, ‘This is the best deal we can get,’ and impose a solution that ends the war with a deal involving reconstruction and Saudi involvement. It will be hard for Israel to say ‘no.’ Israel will declare ‘absolute victory’ on its side, and Hamas will claim victory on theirs.”
He explained that by referencing statements from Steve Witkoff in the last two days, adding: “Witkoff understands what’s happening in the region and wants negotiations. There’s a risk of economic collapse in Israel due to the prolonged war, which Netanyahu understands. He can’t negotiate the next phase due to pressure from extremist elements in his coalition. That’s why I expect Netanyahu to push the U.S. administration to pressure him, so he can tell his hardline partners, ‘This is Washington’s will,’ and move forward.”
Marom ruled out launching a second war on Gaza, explaining: “A large-scale ground invasion requires massive forces and Israeli consensus—especially since the army is tired and depleted.”
He expects a deal between Israel and Hamas within two months, noting that Witkoff more or less said the same in his interview with Fox News yesterday. He concluded: “We must listen to Witkoff, who says the current military operations are helping pave the way to an agreement.”
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