NATO-Russia War Within Two Years? UK Military Expert Warns of Growing Threat

Watan-A chart of estimates by a British military expert indicated that NATO countries may become involved in a military conflict with Russia within the next two years.

This came in statements made to the German Press Agency (DPA) by expert Ed Arnold from the British research center “RUSI” — short for the Royal United Services Institute.

Speaking in the context of Germany’s planned large-scale military investments, Arnold warned that, in light of the Russian threat, the German government does not have the luxury of spreading these investments over ten years. Instead, he argued, the German army should focus first on rapidly expanding its stockpiles of proven weapons systems and ammunition, especially artillery shells.

Germany Urged to Boost Arms Production

According to Arnold, the recommended systems include Taurus cruise missiles, Leopard 2A8 battle tanks, and Boxer armored transport vehicles. He explained that these two armored vehicles (Leopard and Boxer) are also used by other European countries, noting that the German army could therefore “significantly increase production,” equip its military units with heavy gear, and even support its allies.

Arnold expressed the view that German air defense systems like IRIS-T and the Gepard anti-aircraft tanks — which have been retired from service in the German army — have proven to be “remarkably effective” in the ongoing war in Ukraine. For this reason, the British expert recommended producing them in large quantities and exporting them to allied countries.

Arnold said that Europe must abandon the idea of always seeking the highest-tech weaponry. He added: “What the war in Ukraine shows is that you don’t always need to have the best. It’s enough to be just a bit better than the enemy.” He also advised against spending large sums on equipment that, in the event of war, could be lost at a rate of ten units per day.

Europe Must Rethink Drone Strategy and U.S. Arms Dependence

Regarding drones, Arnold emphasized that the important issue is not just having stocks of them (through purchasing), but primarily developing production capabilities that keep pace with rapid technological advancements. He said, “The shift in methods of warfare means that drones are used at the lowest military levels,” adding that these drones “are everywhere on the battlefield.”

Arnold went on to say that Germany must also ask itself whether it really intends to continue investing in American weapons systems, given the current political trends in Washington. He mentioned that this applies especially to the procurement of F-35 stealth fighter jets, as well as the Patriot air defense system. He argued that such systems could be phased out in the medium term and replaced by European alternatives.

Arnold believes that if Russia deliberately seeks to enter a war with NATO countries, this is most likely to happen in the Baltic region — for example, at the Suwałki Gap, the only land corridor between NATO countries in Central Europe and the Baltic allies. However, he also warned that the intensity of military activities in Europe could lead to an unintended war between NATO and Russia in another location.