Watan-The Israeli army and security establishment have presented four operational plans to the political leadership regarding the next phases of the ongoing war of annihilation in the Gaza Strip. The options range from a massive, decisive military operation to accepting the release of hostages in exchange for a prolonged ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza. According to Yedioth Ahronoth on Thursday, the leadership may choose one or a combination of these plans.
The military proposals include a stable ceasefire aligned with Hamas’s demands in return for the release of most or all Israeli captives. Another option considers phased releases with temporary ceasefires spanning weeks or months. A third option advocates for a decisive military victory through a large-scale assault involving several combat divisions. The fourth maintains the current combat status while minimizing humanitarian aid, aiming to pressure Gaza residents to turn against Hamas.
Israel’s Four-Way Strategy Dilemma in Gaza
The Israeli government is weighing the pros and cons of each plan. Officials believe Hamas would perceive the first plan—a ceasefire while retaining arms—as a symbolic victory, resonating throughout the Arab and Islamic world even if Hamas loses formal power. The leadership firmly rejects this option, fearing it could inspire future attacks similar to October 7 and legitimize hostage-taking as a tactic.
The second plan suggests intermittent ceasefires and releases but is seen as unlikely due to Hamas’s expected refusal. The third, most aggressive plan would require mass mobilization and full control over Gaza, risking international backlash and potential war crimes investigations.
The fourth, and currently preferred, option continues the status quo with intensified pressure, selective humanitarian aid, and a gradual degradation of Hamas’s infrastructure. Israeli forces hope this will coerce Hamas to release hostages and surrender arms under civilian pressure. Though officials acknowledge no guarantee this approach will work, it remains the most politically and militarily viable in the short term.
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