Watan-Historically, Arab Muslims in the United States have shown strong support for the Democratic Party. However, the recent Gaza conflict has led to a notable shift in sentiment.

President Joe Biden’s stance on the Israel-Gaza war has left many Arab Americans feeling alienated. Consequently, they have distanced themselves from Biden in the primaries and are threatening to boycott the Democratic Party in the upcoming presidential election scheduled for November 5th.

For Arab voters, Biden’s support for Israel’s ongoing and punitive military actions against Gaza, which have resulted in over 39,000 Palestinian deaths in nearly ten months according to the Hamas-led Ministry of Health in Gaza, has been a major concern.

Yasmin Al-Jamal, an Arab American and former Pentagon advisor on Middle Eastern affairs, expressed to Time magazine, “I don’t think Biden was as balanced as he could have been, and that was really painful for a lot of people.”

She noted that Biden’s position on Gaza made her and others feel “deprioritized as humans due to their identity.”

Decline in Support and the Rise of “Dump Biden” Campaign

This shift in sentiment has had a measurable impact. In the first month of the Gaza war, support for Biden and the Democratic Party among Arab Americans plummeted to unprecedented lows.

Michigan, a key battleground state with a significant Arab American population, appeared almost lost. Following the outbreak of the Gaza conflict last October, some Arabs and Muslims in Michigan launched the “Dump Biden” campaign, part of a broader national movement still ongoing.

Can Kamala Harris Rebuild Bridges?

With Biden exiting the race, the critical question now is whether Vice President Kamala Harris can regain the support of Arab voters.

So far, there is cautious optimism. Many Arab American activists and analysts who spoke to Time magazine are waiting to see what changes, if any, Harris might pledge to make regarding U.S. policy on Gaza if she wins in November.

Most recognize that Harris could potentially build a better relationship with Arab Americans compared to her predecessor. James Zogby, founder and president of the Arab American Institute, noted, “There is a sense of hope” regarding Harris’s potential to restore lost support.

Poll Findings and Harris’s Approach

According to a nationwide poll conducted by the Zogby Institute, an overwhelming majority (79%) of Arab Americans had an unfavorable view of Biden. Although there have been no recent polls on Harris, Zogby believes she has been significantly more empathetic in her approach.

“She has reached out to the community and individuals in various ways to communicate her concerns, and her staff has been responsive, which is very different from the White House,” Zogby added.

Despite the deep dissatisfaction with Biden, Zogby points out that Democrats might recover much of the lost support if Harris addresses concerns about Gaza.

Harris vs. Trump: Poll Implications

In a recent poll, 60% of respondents indicated they would be more likely to vote for Biden in November if he called for an immediate ceasefire and unrestricted humanitarian aid to Gaza, or if he suspended diplomatic support and arms shipments to Israel until a ceasefire was implemented and Israeli forces withdrew.

While Biden proposed a six-week ceasefire and withdrawal from populated Gaza areas, he was less inclined to withhold military aid to Israel, providing only a limited amount of munitions.

Harris’s Policy Positions

Harris has not announced significant policy deviations from Biden regarding Gaza, but she has repeatedly affirmed her support for Israel’s security. However, she has adopted a different rhetorical approach. In March, she was the first senior administration official to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

Harris was also quicker than Biden to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where many Palestinians are living in dire conditions. She explicitly criticized the Israeli government for its role in the crisis.

Harris is seen as more empathetic toward both Israelis and Palestinians compared to Biden, who has been perceived as one of the most pro-Israel presidents in U.S. history.

Hala Raharit, a former U.S. diplomat who resigned earlier this year over the Biden administration’s Gaza policy, told Time that the State Department often relied on her speeches to engage with the Arab world.

The Arab and Muslim American Vote

According to the Arab American Institute and National Public Radio, there are over 3.7 million Arab and Muslim Americans in the U.S., out of a total population of 332 million. The 2020 census reported 2.2 million Americans of Arab descent.

The largest concentration of Arab and Muslim Americans is in the greater Dearborn area of Michigan, which supported Trump in 2016 but shifted to Biden in 2020.

Observers attribute the shift in Arab and Muslim voter sentiment against Trump in 2020 to his pro-Israel policies, including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and implementing a travel ban on Muslim-majority countries, which was later overturned by U.S. courts.

Arab and Muslim Americans are also significant in other states such as California, Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois, New York, and Virginia.

In the 2020 presidential election, approximately 71% of registered Muslim voters cast their ballots. Their votes played a significant role in Biden’s victory over Trump. In states where the organization Emgage mobilized Muslim voters, their numbers increased by 27%.

In Pennsylvania, where Biden won by nearly 81,000 votes, approximately 125,000 Muslim voters participated. In Georgia, where Biden won by nearly 12,000 votes, more than 61,000 Muslim voters turned out.