Watan-Former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton stated that the prisoner exchange deal between the Islamic Resistance Movement “Hamas” and Israel provides the Palestinians with significant gains, emphasizing that the deal comes with both costs and benefits.
In an article for the British newspaper “Telegraph,” Bolton wrote that while the release of Israelis is commendable, there are right and wrong ways to do it, with associated costs and benefits. He noted that Hamas seems to have achieved a major victory.
He added that it is unclear whether the deal constitutes a definitive negative precedent for Israel, but it casts doubt on whether it will achieve its legitimate goal of eliminating the threat posed by Hamas.
Flawed Agreement for Israel
Bolton considered the agreement, from Israel’s perspective, to be fatally flawed in many aspects, even if executed without any flaws. He argued that Israel would use the ceasefire period to prepare for the next stage of the war, rotating forces, resupplying, and the like.
On the other hand, he explained that Hamas would exploit the pause to regroup and prepare for the next Israeli attack, launching more surprise attacks. Bolton questioned, “How many Israeli soldiers will die because of giving Hamas the opportunity to set additional traps and strengthen itself?”
Israel’s Most Important Concession
He described the U.S. and Israel agreeing to suspend aerial surveillance of Gaza for six hours daily during the ceasefire as more important than the ceasefire itself because it deprives Israel of information about Hamas activities during this period.
Bolton pointed out that Israel’s critical military problem is the opportunities it would lose if it halts its attack halfway.
Israel’s Strategy Pushing Toward Surrender He indicated that Hamas’s strategy boils down to taking any temporary pause, no matter how short, justifying it, and extending it to a permanent ceasefire. While this might not happen on the first attempt, the pressure on Israel to compel it to surrender will increase.
Bolton explained that the decisive political danger facing Israel is undermining its determination to eliminate Hamas, and the most perilous aspect is the weakening U.S. support, which is already beginning to wane.