Home Reports Gaza’s Impact: Unraveling the Upset in Turkey’s Municipal Elections

Gaza’s Impact: Unraveling the Upset in Turkey’s Municipal Elections

Basil Al Sayed
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Gaza’s Impact: Unraveling the Upset in Turkey’s Municipal Elections
A key role for Gaza.. The secret behind the setback of Erdogan's party and the sudden fall of Justice and Development in local elections

Watan-The dramatic fall and significant setback of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the municipal elections in Turkey, facing the opposition for the first time and the unexpected victory of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), sparked widespread debate among politicians and activists on social media platforms, amid questions about the reasons behind it.

According to preliminary results, the Republican People’s Party advanced over other parties, surpassing the AKP for the first time, achieving a vote share of 37.5%, while the ruling party came in second with a vote share of 35.6%, and the Welfare Party again in third place with a vote share of 6.1%.

Some analysts have interpreted this as part of what they call “punishment voting” — sending messages to the political leadership through the ballot boxes, which was clearly evident in these elections, as indicated by various indicators.

How did Gaza play a role in Erdogan’s party’s defeat against the opposition?

The low turnout rate indicates a clear reluctance among AKP supporters to participate in the elections. Excluding the 2004 local elections (the first for the AKP with a turnout of 76.2%), this was the lowest turnout rate in local elections since the 1970s. The decline in the number of votes received by the party by over two million votes (15.7 million votes compared to 18 million votes in 2019), despite an increase in the number of voters, reinforces this hypothesis.

Others have emphasized that the massacres and Israeli aggression in Gaza, and Erdogan’s and his party’s failure to respond as expected, had a significant impact on the Turkish elections. Erdogan’s and his government’s stance, which did not match the level of Gaza aggression, came as a major shock to AKP voters.

After this surprising outcome and the significant setback for Erdogan’s party, there may be a change in the Turkish government’s position on Gaza, especially after officials in the party felt that Gaza played a role in the AKP’s loss in the Turkish municipal elections.

It is undeniable that the aggression on Gaza and the Turkish government’s stance had a significant impact on the election results, but that does not mean that Gaza is the main or sole reason for the AKP’s downfall.

The impact of the Gaza issue can be seen in the surge of votes for the Welfare Party. Votes that were previously cast for the AKP and were angered by its stance on Gaza shifted to the Welfare Party, while other votes boycotted the elections.

The Gaza issue came as a major shock to AKP voters. While they were organizing major boycott campaigns against the occupation, and despite the demands of AKP voters for the government to stop trading with the Israeli occupation, the Turkish government ignored these demands, leaving a negative impression among AKP voters that manifested in the current election results.

Surprising municipal election results in Turkey for the first time

It is noteworthy that for the first time since 1977, the Republican People’s Party won first place in all of Turkey. They also won in the two most important cities, Istanbul and Ankara, which the CHP took from Erdogan’s party in the previous elections in 2019.

This time, the Republican People’s Party did not settle for winning the municipalities of Istanbul and Greater Ankara alone, but also secured a majority in the municipal council.

In the province of Manisa, there was a major surprise, as this city has been one of the main strongholds of the AKP since its establishment and had never been lost to any other party. In the 2019 elections, the AKP, based on an agreement with the MHP party, supported the MHP candidate in the municipal elections, and indeed the supported party candidate won.

In these elections, the two parties formed the same alliance again, but the surprise was that the Republican People’s Party emerged as the winner. Also, the new Welfare Party contributed to the Republican People’s Party’s majority win in the municipal council as well.

Shock to the Justice and Development Party

Analysts say that it may have been expected for Erdogan’s party to decline in Turkey’s recent local elections for several reasons, but the preliminary results showed an unexpected significant decline and a stunning loss for the AKP.

The Republican People’s Party advanced over the AKP for the first time and did not only retain the mayoralties of some major cities, but also added additional cities and provinces in a sweeping victory that came as a shock to many.

Thus, the advancement of the Republican People’s Party was clear as the sun, as was the significant and obvious setback of the ruling party, the Justice and Development Party, despite the fact that the presidential and legislative elections just 10 months ago yielded different results than the current ones.

This pushes for studying and discussing the reasons and contributing factors to this shocking outcome for the ruling party, which has won in all electoral contests since its establishment in 2001 until now.

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